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Abstract Detail

Herbarium Digitization for Research, Teaching, and the Public

Germain-Aubrey, Charlotte [1], Allen, Julie [2], Majure, Lucas [3], Neubig, Kurt [4], Ponciano, Jose Miguel [5], Soltis, Douglas [6], Soltis, Pamela [7].

Using herbaria to predict climate change response: modeling Florida plant diversity.

Scientists have long realized that looking into the past is crucial for predicting the future. Florida hosts several biodiversity hotspots and is home to over 4,100 species of plants. Using herbarium collections, we reconstructed niche models for more than 2,700 terrestrial plant species from Florida and projected these models into the future. Mapping the index of plant diversity, distributions of different traits, and endemism hotspots, we examine the predicted future distributions of this diversity. Plant distributions were projected for 50 years, with consideration given to models of dispersal ability, sea level change, and land use predictions. The plant species, unexpectedly, show a strong movement southeastward, with two distinct regions responding differently to the future change in climate. Changes in precipitation seem to be stronger determinants of these responses than increasing temperatures. Furthermore, the regions with the greatest projected increases in species richness correspond to the most vulnerable to sea level rise, with important implications for conservation and land management of the peninsula. This study emphasizes the importance of museum collections in our ability to understand and predict future changes in biodiversity at the landscape level.

Broader Impacts:

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1 - University of Florida, Florida Museum of Natural History, Dickinson HAll, Museum Road, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA
2 - University of Illinois, Illinois Natural History Survey, 607 E. Peabody Dr. , Champaign, IL, 61680, USA
3 - University of Florida, Florida Museum Of Natural History, P.O. Box 117800, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA
4 - University of Florida, Florida Museum of Natural History, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA
5 - University of Florida, Department of Biology, 309 Carr Hall, Gainesville, Florida, 32611, United States
6 - University of Florida, Biology and Florida Museum of Natural History, Gainesville, FL, 32605, USA
7 - University of Florida, Florida Museum of Natural History, PO BOX 117800, Gainesville, FL, 32611-7800, USA

niche modeling
Climate Change

Presentation Type: Symposium or Colloquium Presentation
Session: SY02
Location: Elmwood/Riverside Hilton
Date: Monday, July 29th, 2013
Time: 11:15 AM
Number: SY02008
Abstract ID:609
Candidate for Awards:None

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